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Mortgage News Daily

  • MBS RECAP: Bonds Show Up, Break Stuff, And Then Just Walk Away

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Have you ever seen someone randomly do something fairly awful/hurtful/aggressive, offer no explanation or apology, and then just leave the scene? That was essentially what bond markets did today. Friday's already unpleasant weakness was forcibly extended , bringing yields to the highest levels in more than 4 years during the overnight session (a feat that was nearly repeated during domestic hours). There were no new developments in the bond market world to justify such a turn of events. Still, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise if you've been reading this commentary. After all, last week was all about the "defeat of the friendly Springtime consolidation in rates." That defeat paved the way for the bigger-picture, longer-term selling trend to get back underway. Bottom...(read more)

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  • NOW Mortgage Rates Are at 4-Year Highs

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates moved markedly higher today, officially leaving them at new 4-year highs. The only other time they've earned that distinction this year was in February--NOT last week as all the major surveys claimed. To be clear, they were certainly close last week, but the surveys didn't account for some of the worst individual days in February. Does any of this really matter? No, not so much. Here's what matters: The average lender is quoting very well-qualified borrowers with huge downpayments something north of 4.5% on conventional 30yr fixed mortgages today. Let's call it 4.625%. Up until Friday, that number hadn't been over 4.5% except for on a few of those ill-fated February days. Also important is the message that such a move sends. Simply put, the bond market (which underlies rates...(read more)

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  • Freddie Mac Forecast: Lots of "Ifs" and "Buts"

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Freddie Mac's economists say, "The broader economic environment remains favorable for home sales," but they add a lot of caveats to that statement . Sales are holding up so far, despite the increase in mortgage rates, but will that continue? Sales started recovering in 2010, with the aggregate of new and existing sales growing annually except for 2014; largely because rates rose that year. Rates are not necessarily the only driver, however, from 2016 to 2017 home sales rose along with rates. Of course, sales depend on the interaction between demand- and supply-side factors. Demand factors include demographics, labor market outcomes, and financing conditions including rates and the availability of credit. Among supply factors are the construction of new homes, vacancy rates, and the inventory...(read more)

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  • Existing Home Sales Beat Headwinds, Score Small Gains

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Existing-home sales seemed to have reclaimed their footing, posting their second consecutive gain after two straight months of declines. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said March sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and coops rose 1.1 percent compared to February, putting sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million units. The March pace built on a 3.0 percent increase in February, but sales are still down 1.2 percent compared to March 2017 . Sales in February were at a rate of 5.54 million. Analysts polled by Econoday had expected existing home sales in the 5.39 to 5.80 range. The consensus was 5.51 million units. Single-family homes sales were up 0.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.99 million units from 4,96 million in February, putting those sales...(read more)

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  • Events and Webinars; GDP Primer; Rates at 2014 Levels

    Posted To: Pipeline Press

    “A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you’re talking real money,” was never actually uttered by Illinois politician Everett Dirksen. ("Oh, I never said that. A newspaper fella misquoted me once, and I thought it sounded so good that I never bothered to deny it.") The big news late Friday was the CFPB & OCC announcing a settlement with Wells Fargo for auto-loan administration and mortgage practices – all lenders need adequate compliance or risk management programs, right? Wells Fargo said that the company would adjust its first quarter 2018 preliminary financial results by an additional accrual of $800 million, which is not tax deductible. According to the CFPB's consent orders, apart from paying the fine, Wells Fargo will remediate harmed consumers and undertake...(read more)

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  • MBS Week Ahead: 10yr at 3%: The Most Overrated--Possibly Even Meaningless--Ceiling

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    I'm going to be surly this week about the way the bond market is covered in the financial media. Many of the articles to which I take exception will appear in the live news stream on MBS Live and Mortgage News Daily. They are there for reference and/or "target practice," if you take my meaning. And I'm not talking about plinking cans in the 3rd grade at my buddy Tim's house (he had dirt bikes too!). I'm talking more like a heavy explosives demonstration. So please, stay behind the safety glass, put on your protective eyewear, and observe. Target 1: The Notion That High Rates Hurt Stocks: No matter how many times someone writes this in a news article--no matter how many times a talking head claims this on the TV--it never becomes true. I mean, I guess it could become...(read more)

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  • MBS RECAP: Bonds Surge to Weakest Levels since 2014

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    10yr yields hit the highest levels in more than 4 years this afternoon as bigger-picture selling pressure looks to be taking the reigns back from the Springtime consolidation that helped rates hold steady-to-slightly lower in March. There are no big, obvious reasons for the sudden spike in rates. We're left to cobble together a narrative from boring, esoteric stuff like an "imbalance in trading positions," anxiety over the data, earnings, and bond supply next week, and the end of a few days of extra help from tax deadline retirement account funding. Or, if you'd like to go with fewer words , it's no less valid to say that technicals and momentum are the culprits. In other words, bonds were in a consolidation trend. They tested the ceiling, broke the ceiling, and have been...(read more)

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  • Mortgage Rates Quickly Approaching 4-Year Highs

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Let's clear one thing up before we begin. Freddie Mac, MBA, and Ellie Mae all noted new 4-year highs in mortgage rates this week. They are all technically wrong. This has to do with the way their data is collected and/or averaged. And while I have no doubt that they are accurately conveying the results of their data collection efforts according to their methodology, there is a more accurate way to do things. Specifically, we can track actual lenders' rate sheets every day. Even if we take an average of that daily data, we still find that rates aren't quite back to 4-year highs just yet. Depending on the lender, these occurred on one of the days near the end of February. In fact, some lenders' rates from March 21st are still higher than today's. Are we talking about very big differences between...(read more)

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  • Wells Fargo to Face Largest Fine Yet

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Once again Wells Fargo is about to pay dearly for its inability to walk the straight and narrow. The Washington Post , under the byline of Renae Merle, is reporting that the bank is about to be hit with the largest penalty of the Trump administration , perhaps as early as today. A settlement, reported to be in the neighborhood of $1 billion, has been reached between wells and its regulators, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) over improprieties in both their mortgage and auto lending business. The Bank acknowledged last week that it faced a hefty fine. Neither regulator has commented on the matter to date. Wells Fargo has admitted to charging some customers improper fees to lock in their mortgage interest rates and to forcing...(read more)

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  • MBS Day Ahead: If Rates Keep Moving Higher, It Could Still Be a Head Fake

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Rates are in the midst of a serious, threatening move higher. Yesterday brought additional confirmation of the end of the friendly Springtime consolidation trend and it took us one step closer to the highest yields in more than 4 years. The specific reasons for yesterday's weakness were covered in the MBS Live Huddle , but even then, the bigger-picture justification for gradual weakness in 2018 is well-documented here and elsewhere (Treasury issuance, Fed policy outlook, upside growth/inflation risks). Rates could very well continue higher today--possibly even enough to break those pesky 4-year highs from back in late February. But even if they do, it might not be the end of the world. In fact, there are at least 2 recent examples of big scary rate spikes consolidating (like we did in March...(read more)

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Bonnie Koff  |  Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker  |  William Raveis Legends Realty Group  | Tarrytown Office 
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