bonnie koff logo

Warning

JUser: :_load: Unable to load user with ID: 549

While aging in place -- including home maintenance, medical costs and property taxes -- will be the primary reason for seniors' tapping into home equity for decades to come, there are many other underestimated needs and wants that will quickly race to the front burner once a greater number of consumers better understand reverse mortgages.

In a recent column, we discussed the benefits of combining Social Security payments, securities portfolios and a reverse mortgage early into a retirement plan. By using the reverse mortgage to supplement the package during the life of the plan, researchers showed that a retiree's residual net worth (portfolio plus home equity) after 30 years is about twice as likely to be greater when an active reverse mortgage strategy is used than when the reverse mortgage is used as a last resort.
Housing starts will nearly double and home prices will begin to rise in 2013, with prices increasing significantly in 2014.

Those rosy predictions come from a new semi-annual survey of 38 of the nation’s leading real estate economists and analysts by the Urban Land Institute’s Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. The economists foresee broad improvements for the nation’s economy, real estate capital markets, real estate fundamentals and the housing industry through 2014, including:

  • The national average home price is expected to stop declining this year, and then rise by 2 percent in 2013 and by 3.5 percent in 2014.;
  • Vacancy rates are expected to drop in a range of between 1.2 and 3.7 percentage points for office, retail, and industrial properties and remain stable at low levels for apartments; while hotel occupancy rates will likely rise;
  • Rents are expected to increase for all property types, with 2012 increases ranging from 0.8 percent for retail up to 5.0 percent for apartments.

These strong projections are based on a promising outlook for the overall economy. The survey results show the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise steadily from 2.5 percent this year to 3 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent by 2014; the nation’s unemployment rate is expected to fall to 8.0 percent in 2012, 7.5 percent in 2013, and 6.9 percent by 2014; and the number of jobs created is expected to rise from an expected 2 million in 2012 to 2.5 million in 2013 to 2.75 million in 2014.


The improving economy, however, will likely lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which will raise the cost of borrowing for consumers and investors. For 2012, 2013 and 2014, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be 2.4 percent, 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively; and ten-year treasury rates will rise along with inflation, with a rate of 2.4 percent projected for 2012, 3.1 percent for 2013, and 3.8 percent for 2014.

The survey, conducted during late February and early March, is a consensus view and reflects the median forecast for 26 economic indicators, including property transaction volumes and issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities; property investment returns, vacancy rates and rents for several property sectors; and housing starts and home prices. Comparisons are made on a year-by-year basis from 2009, when the nation was in the throes of recession, through 2014.

While the ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast suggests that economic growth will be steady rather than sporadic, it must be viewed within the context of numerous risk factors such as the continuing impact of Europe’s debt crisis; the impact of the upcoming presidential election in the U.S. and major elections overseas; and the complexities of tighter financial regulations in the U.S. and abroad, says ULI Chief Executive Officer Patrick L. Phillips. “While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years. These results hold much promise for the real estate industry.”

A slight cooling trend in the apartment sector—the investors’ darling for the past two years—is seen in the survey results, with other property types projected to gain momentum over the next two years. By property type, total returns for institutional quality assets in 2012 are expected to be strongest for apartments, at 12.1 percent; followed by industrial, at 11.5 percent; office, at 10.8 percent; and retail, at 10 percent. By 2014, however, returns are expected to be strongest for office, at 10 percent, and industrial, at 10 percent; followed by apartments at 8.8 percent and retail at 8.5 percent.

The forecast predicts a modest increase in vacancy rates, from 5 percent this year to 5.1 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent in 2014; and a decrease in rental growth rates, with rents expected to grow by 5 percent this year, and then moderate to a growth rate of 4.0 percent for 2013 and 3.8 percent by 2014. This may be indicative of supply catching up with demand.

For the housing industry, the survey results suggest that 2012 could mark the beginning of a turnaround—albeit a slow one. Single-family housing starts, which have been near record lows over the past three years, are projected to reach 500,000 in 2012, 660,000 in 2013, and 800,000 in 2014. The overhang of foreclosed properties in markets hit hardest by the housing collapse will continue to affect the housing recovery in those markets. However, in general, improved job prospects and strengthening consumer confidence will likely bring buyers back to the housing market.
westchester-bonnie-koff-cash-moneyCapital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.

The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.

Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters. However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability.
Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings. Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes "the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions." In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.

 

Home sales are expected to stay on an uptrend through 2012, although the performance will be uneven with mortgage constraints weighing on the market, according to experts at a residential real estate forum today at the Realtors® Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo here.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said existing-home sales have been underperforming by historical standards and will rise gradually but unevenly. “If we just hold at the first-quarter sales pace of 5.1 million, sales this year would rise 4 percent, but the remainder of the year looks better,” Yun said. “We expect 5.3 million existing-home sales this year, up from 4.9 million in 2010, with additional gains in 2012 to about 5.6 million – that’s a sustainable level given the size of our population.”

Mortgage interest rates should rise gradually to 5.5 percent by the end of the year and average 6.0 percent in 2012 – still relatively affordable by historic standards.

“A huge volume of cash sales, supported by the recovery in the stock market, show that smart money is chasing real estate. This implies that there could be a sizeable pent-up demand if mortgages become more readily accessible for qualified buyers,” Yun said. “The problem isn’t with interest rates, but with the continuation of unnecessarily tight credit standards that are keeping many creditworthy buyers from getting a loan despite extraordinarily low default rates over the past two years.”

bonniekoff-homesales-upRISMEDIA, January 21, 2011—Existing-home sales rose sharply in December 2010, when sales increased for the fifth time in the past six months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million in December from an upwardly revised 4.70 million in November, but remain 2.9% below the 5.44 million pace in December 2009.

chart-low-interest-v1WASHINGTON, Sept. 9 (UPI) -- Average interest rates for long-term mortgages rose slightly or held still in the past week, the U.S. Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. said Thursday.

Freddie Mac Vice President and Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said mixed signals in a national employment report -- showing unemployment up to 9.6 percent, but private payrolls higher -- had "a mixed effect on mortgage rates this week."

 

As a Member of the Top 5 in Real Estate Network®, I am often asked by my clients about how to improve credit and also how to help them educate their own children about avoiding the pitfalls and temptations that early accessibility to credit can bring.Many parents have learned how to build and manage their credit and money through trial and error. As a result, in many cases, their credit has either been damaged or not optimized in the process. Parents can find a number of easy ways to get educated on more effective ways to manage their money and credit. Here are some important, age-specific tips that parents can use to help their children learn the value of money and, consequently, credit from ApprovalGuard.com.
After enduring three years of a declining real estate market, 2009 brought a much needed break for the hard hit real estate sector. Driven largely in part by the economic stimulus that helped the housing market emerge from the recession, it leaves many of us wondering what is next for real estate. Will housing prices rebound? Will the new extended and expanded tax credit be just what the doctor ordered? Will the luxury market recover similarly to the entry level?

How would you say the housing market faired in 2009?
Did it live up to your expectations or falter?
Page 6 of 7

Mortgage News Daily

  • MBS RECAP: Nice Gains More About Europe Than Fed

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Bonds surged to significantly stronger levels in the presence of the Fed Minutes today. Any time we see strong gains on a day with a Fed release, chances are the Fed is behind the move. Incidentally, that's NOT the case today (spoiler in the headline, I know). So how did Europe trump the Fed in terms of bond market impact? In short, this is all about Italian political drama. The two anti-Eurozone parties who are forming a coalition government in Italy are waiting for confirmation of their staffing choices from the Italian prime minister (yeah... things work differently over there). One of the picks had previously referred to the Eurozone as a noose around Italy's neck. It's not overboard to consider this political regime as potentially pushing Italy away from the Euro. That's...(read more)

    Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

  • Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Levels in 2 Weeks

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    This week hadn't been too traumatic for mortgage rates through yesterday afternoon, but neither had it been positive in any noticeable way. That changed today as rates fell abruptly to the lowest levels since last Monday. Granted, at the time, last Monday's rates were still pretty close to the worst in 7 years, but the point is that we've managed to find our way back from the even higher rates that followed. Help came chiefly from European political developments where Italy is a day or two away from confirming a government that could end up pushing the country out of the Eurozone . Even though that's far from guaranteed, the mere risk of such a thing is enough to drive investors toward safer haven bonds like those issued by Germany or the US. In general, excess demand for bonds means rates...(read more)

    Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

  • Houses Passes S2155, Unwinds Less of Dodd-Frank Than Hoped

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    The House of Representatives passed a sweeping overhaul of regulations included in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act on Tuesday. Senate Bill 2155, which passed the upper house in March, received a 258 to 259 vote in the House. It now goes to the White House for what is expected to be certain presidential approval. The bill did not go nearly as far as the House had hoped in rolling back Dodd-Frank. Leadership agreed to vote on the compromise bill negotiated in the Senate between Republicans and Democrats only after a promise of a vote latter this year on other changes House members, especially House Financial Services Chair Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) were demanding. According to Bloomberg, the legislation gives smaller banks relief from post-crisis rules that they...(read more)

    Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

  • New Home Sales Continue to Improve on Annual Basis

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    New home sales dipped in April, a reversal that was expected by many analysts . The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said sales of newly constructed homes during the month were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000 units. This is 1.5 percent below the revised rate of 672,000 units in March. The March estimate was revised down from 694,000 units, erasing much of that month's reported 4 percent gain. Despite the downturn, sales are now running 11.6 percent above the April 2017 estimate of 593,000 sales. In March the year-over-year gain was reported at 8.8 percent. Analysts polled by Econoday had expected sales to be in the 650,000 to 692,000 range. The consensus was 677,000. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis there were 64,000 new homes sold in...(read more)

    Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

  • Freddie Mac to Address Origination Barriers for Young Buyers

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Reams of data have been gathered about what appear to be significant changes in the profile of younger homebuyers and consequently mortgage borrowers. This usually means the Millennial generation, but recently Gen Z, those born in 1995 and later have begun moving into homeownership as well. A recent report by Freddie Mac says the Millennials came of age after the housing crisis and since home prices bottomed out, rents have increased an average of 20 percent. "It's not easy to save up for a down payment when you're pouring you money into rapidly escalating rents." And even those who do have savings, may have difficulty convincing a bank they have the necessary income to qualify for a loan: Increasingly, millennials don't have only one on-payroll job and a W-2 to show income. Add to that the...(read more)

    Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

  • Lender Products; Congress' Take on TILA, PACE Loans, and MLO Licensing

    Posted To: Pipeline Press

    Every vendor here at the MBA conference suggests they can help clients close more loans faster, more efficiently and compliantly. If only all these lenders had more loans in their pipelines to close! But lenders here in NY are an optimistic bunch. Lender Products Yesterday at the MBA Secondary conference in New York, Mortgage Coach and Optimal Blue announced an enhanced integration that avails access to accurate pricing within the Mortgage Coach platform. Now every Mortgage Coach-powered loan originator can include real-time product and pricing data within the Total Cost Analysis – in seconds without ever leaving the Mortgage Coach app – giving their borrowers the transparent and accurate loan options they need to make a confident mortgage decision faster. “Combining the sophisticated...(read more)

    Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

  • MBS Day Ahead: Italian Impact Continues, Helping Bonds Start Strong

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    I woke up this morning to an automated alert from MBS Live letting me know I'd need to hustle to the desk and explain whatever it was that caused the friendly spike more than 6bps lower in 10yr yields (all the way down to 3.0%). The safest bet was that it was something to do with Italy, and my chart of Italian spreads vs German Bunds didn't disappoint. Equities markets happened to be playing ball as well. It's been a good morning to be a safe-haven US Treasury bond (especially longer duration bonds like 10 and 30yr securities). The net effect on the bigger picture for the US bond market is that it sets us up to challenge the important 3.05-3.06% floor (obviously). In fact, it gives us a huge head start for the day. Remember the lessons from bonds 2-3 weeks ago though. As we attempted...(read more)

    Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

  • Refinance Applications Near 18-Year Low

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Mortgage rates surged significantly during the week ended May 18, sending mortgage activity skidding for the fifth straight week . The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, dropped by 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis there was a 3 percent decline. The seasonally adjusted Purc h ase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week but remained 3 percent higher than the same week in 2017. Refinance activity hit a near 18-year low . The Refinance Index declined another 4 percent compared to the previous week, to its lowest level since December 2000. Refinancing also continues to lose...(read more)

    Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

  • MBS RECAP: Bonds on Autopilot Ahead of Fed Minutes and Treasury Auction

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    For the 2nd straight day , trading levels in bond markets held inside a narrow range--far narrower than that seen on any given day last week, let alone the entire week. This could be incidental or it could be in anticipation of some future event. The leading candidates as far as future events would be tomorrow's release of the Fed Minutes at 2pm as well as the first serious Treasury auction of the week (5yr Notes at 1pm). Given that the bigger of the two events hits an hour later, that's where we'd be looking for intraday risk-- at least it would be if we were in a more normal environment. As it stands, the bond market is exceptionally well availed of the Fed's plans and it's unlikely that new information is going to be gleaned from this or any near-term release. The only...(read more)

    Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

  • Mortgage Rates Super Flat So Far This Week

    Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    After quite a bit of volatility and a move up to 7-year highs last week, mortgage rates have managed to avoid any semblance of drama so far this week. In fact, each of the past 2 days has seen the average lender keep 30yr fixed rates perfectly in-line with Friday's latest levels. The worst that could be said of these rates is that they're very close to last week's highs. The second worst thing that could be said of these rates is that they're the latest in a series of gradual moves higher over the past few years. The general expectation is that rates can continue to move higher as long as the economy continues to tolerate higher borrowing costs. Mortgage lenders know that we are now in a rising rate environment. That means they're less likely to offer huge improvements on rate sheets unless...(read more)

    Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Residential Real Estate Sales

Westchester County, NY

 
Westchester Top 5 Real Estate

2009-2010 Top 5

Top Real Estate Agent Award

Westchester Magazine Top Realtor

2010-2011 Westchester Top Realtor

Westchester Magazine Top Realtor Award

For more information about fair housing practices, please visit the HUD website.


Bonnie Koff  |  Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker  |  William Raveis Legends Realty Group  | Tarrytown Office 
914-332-6300  |  37 Main Street, Tarrytown, New York 10591  |  Email